• Volume 21,Issue 3,2018 Table of Contents
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    • Collusion and extortion: Media behavior under economics perspective: An event study based on news extortion case

      2018, 21(3):1-22.

      Abstract (913) HTML (0) PDF 683.84 K (1277) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Using the exposure of“21st Century News Group”news extortion case as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines whether financial media,as an economic subject itself,would conspire with,supervise, or even threaten companies. Based on news reports published before the exposure,companies are classified into three groups: the media-interest-related group,themedia-interest-grabbed group,and the control group. The empirical results demonstrate that when the self-interest behavior of the media was exposed, the market would downgrade the valuation of interest-related firms and upgrade the valuation of interestgrabbed firms,as indicated by the significantly negative market reaction to the former group and significantly positive reaction to the latter. There is a less positive or even negative market reaction to local firms within the interest-grabbed group. It shows that geographically nearer firms are more likely to compromise or“cooperate” with the local media when being threatened.

    • Impact analysis of separate variables on the excess liquidity and global imbalances: A perspective from money dilution theory

      2018, 21(3):23-40+93.

      Abstract (597) HTML (0) PDF 985.14 K (1191) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:The paper builds a general equilibrium model to study excess liquidity and the global imbalances. The impacts of factors such as excess liquidity,savings,consumption,financial development and economic growth on the world economy are analyzed and ten important propositions are proposed. The model can theoretically explain phenomena in the world economy comprehensively,scientifically,and reasonably. The conclusions obtained can not only cover the main viewpoints of the relevant literature but also reveal the development logic of today's world economy by infiltrating the theories into the four links of social reproduction. The United States freely acquires the fruits of the development of world economy by makinguse of his international reserve currency. The United States makes a profit from fictitious economy by exchanging with the real economies of other countries according to his comparative advantage. This supports the excessive consumption in the United States and leads to the US current account deficit which contributes to global imbalances. The United States has the main responsibility for the financial crisis.

    • Utility-based model for interpreting evolution patterns of social networks

      2018, 21(3):41-53.

      Abstract (1094) HTML (0) PDF 640.79 K (1380) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Existing models often uncovered the evolution patterns via statistical analysis,which would be unable to explain micro behavior reasons driving the social network evolution. To make up the deficiency,a utility function of network individuals is established and a utility analysis is introduced to model the social network evolution. Meanwhile,the meeting sequence,embedded in the social network evolution,is further modeled as a latent variable in order to explain the evolution phenomenon that the mentioned utility analysis cannot explain. Subsequently,taking one-period observation of social network structure and individual attributes as the input,a Bayes-inference-based method is developed for estimating the preference parameters and the latent meeting states. Through two groups of simulation analysis,the accuracy of parameter estimation and the applicable scope are verified,and the proposed model is also applied to validate its explanatory power and predictive force on the collected real data from Facebook platform. In all,the proposed model will be helpful to explain how social network forms on social media platforms and also to predict the tendency of social network evolution, so that it can lay a foundation for achieving the expected network structure and further controlling the information spreading within social networks.

    • Location-inventory problem for national strategic blood reserves

      2018, 21(3):54-68.

      Abstract (1050) HTML (0) PDF 652.32 K (1640) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Establishing strategic blood reserves is one effective way to deal with emergency blood supply problem in large-scale sudden-onset emergencies. To enhance the ability of emergency blood supply,an optimal model for multi-objective location-inventory problem was developed to maximize the timeliness of post-disaster emergency blood supply and minimize the total operation cost of strategic blood reserves. The model takes into account some factors including multi-scenario,multi-stage,multiple blood group,stochastic demand, replenishment lead time,facility capacity and coordinated location. After analyzing the characteristics of the model, a NSGA-II algorithm based on niche technique is proposed to solve the model. The results of a numerical example show that the efficient Pareto frontier can be obtained by using the algorithm. Thus,the decision makers can select an appropriate location-inventory scheme for strategic blood reserves from a cluster of Pareto solutions by keep a balance between the cost and timeliness of emergency blood supply according to his preferences and actual needs of decision-makers.

    • Hidden consumptions of activity floats under generalized precedence relations

      2018, 21(3):69-81.

      Abstract (800) HTML (0) PDF 713.22 K (1232) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:This discovers new anomalies in activity network under generalized precedence relations ( GPRs) . In conventional ideas,only two causations could result in consumptions of time floats of an activity: ( 1) the activity actively consumes time floats,and ( 2) it passively consumes time floats because of the impaction of consumptions of time floats of its preceding activities. However,we discover that even without the two causations, the time floats of an activity also can be consumed. These anomalies are hidden consumptions of activity floats,and may appear in projects with GPRs. We study the anomalies based on activity networks under GPRs,and design algorithms to quantize the hidden consumptions of classic total float and hidden float respectively. The hidden consumptions of activity floats may weaken current models and optimization approaches based on time floats so that has indispensable application to project scheduling with GPRs.

    • Perceived risk and overconfidence of structured financial products investors

      2018, 21(3):82-93.

      Abstract (918) HTML (0) PDF 515.65 K (1408) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:This paper quantifies the risk of structured financial products by the perceived risk measures based on the standard measures of risk,and then constructs risk perception and decision making models of individual investors for structured products. Moreover,the psychological bias of overconfidence is introduced to explore the mechanism how the bias affects investors’perceived risk. The paper finds that overconfident investors believe in private signals and underestimate the variance of noise in private signals,which affects their expectation of the underlying asset price of structured financial products. Then the overconfidence bias leads investors to overestimate the probability of getting a better return. With the increase of overconfidence,the overvaluation of the probability is intensified,which eventually leads to lower perceived risk.

    • Universal portfolio selection strategy based on sub-gradient projection

      2018, 21(3):94-104.

      Abstract (941) HTML (0) PDF 516.62 K (1625) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Online portfolio selection is important in the field of quantitative investment. Recently,the emerging investment opportunities call for portfolio selection strategies that can be efficiently computed. However, online portfolio selection strategies with high performance often require exponential or polynomial computation, which hinders their practical applications. This paper proposes a novel universal portfolio selection strategy: the“Sub-Gradient Projection”( SGP) . This paper first applies the SGP idea to portfolio construction and gains the rebalance rule. Its competitive performance is analyzed theoretically,which shows that SGP is a universal portfolio selection strategy. Moreover,SGP strategy needs linear computational time,which is quite efficient. Empirically,SGP strategy is back-tested using the datasets from US and China. The results show that SGP strategy can achieve a similar cumulative wealth equivalent to that of the latest strategies with much shorter computational time. The experiments on parameter sensitivity show that SGP is insensitive to its parameters. Moreover,it can sustain reasonable transaction costs.

    • Small enterprises credit rating based on default identification ability of combination weighting: Based on an empirical analysis of small industrial enterprises

      2018, 21(3):105-126.

      Abstract (949) HTML (0) PDF 851.42 K (1753) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Credit rating is aimed at measuring the possibility of default,so credit rating system must be able to identify default risk,and separate default customers and non-default customers. This paper through thinking of non-default enterprises close to positive ideal point and default enterprises close to negative ideal point,multiobjective programming model is constructed to solve the optimal combination weights. Through the J-T nonparametric test,the rationality of the credit evaluation model is verified. And this paper does empirical analysis about 1 814 loan customers in a regional commercial bank of China. The innovations and characters in this paper: Firstly,minimizing the distance of non-default enterprises’weighted data to positive ideal point as the first objective function,minimizing the distance of default enterprises’weighted data to negative ideal point as the second objective function,multi-objective programming model is constructed to solve the optimal combination weights. The optimal combination weights satisfy the goal“the higher scores of non-default enterprises, the lower scores of default enterprises”and ensure that credit rating model maximizes the distance of non-default enterprises and default enterprises. It changes the disadvantage that combination weights is contrary to credit rating purpose in existing research,and changes the disadvantage that a lot of the score overlap between non-default and default enterprises and the ability of distinguish between non-default and default enterprises is low in existing research. Secondly,this paper use the J-T nonparametric test to verify the rationality of the credit evaluation model,aimed to ensure that the scores of non-default enterprises is higher significantly than the scores of default enterprises,avoids the irrational phenomenon in existing research that the scores of default enterprises is higher. Thirdly,Compared with traditional combination weighting models in existing research, the default identification ability of the combination weighting model in this research is higher than two kinds of combination weighting models in existing research,one is the combination weighting model based on maximum variance,the other is the combination weighting model based on minimum deviation.

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