CHEN Chun-hua , ZHU Li , ZHONG Hao , LIU Chao , WU Meng-wei , ZENG Hao
2019, 22(10):1-8.
Abstract:Due to the long-termseclusion policy,China failed to catch up with the Industrial Revolution in the 1900s,therefore remained absent in the history of modern management about a century. Although China’s management research has been increasingly internationally compatibleafter entering the 21st century,it drifted away from the practical experiences of Chinese enterprises,and this phenomenon invokes thoughts. With the arrival of“China’s world”and“Digital transformation”in the 2000s,the innovative practice of Chinese enterprises has brought new theoretical opportunities to Chinese management. This study avoids transplanting western management theory indiscriminately to the Chinese situation and concludes the experience of the leading companies in China. This research proposes adirectionof innovative management theory,which is the transformation from the“industrial era”to the“digital survival”. Thus,this paper explores the possible methods for turning Chinese corporate innovation to new management theory in the following five aspects: working mode,human resource management,financial management,organizational management,and strategic management.
2019, 22(10):9-23.
Abstract:With the development of e-commerce,online retailers’Double-Eleven Day and other large-scale promotional activities are very popular in recent years. The complaints of out of stock of products and cancelled orders that follow have also attracted increasing attention in recent days. Since price and product availability affect a consumer’s purchase choice jointly,how to manage online retailer’s stock-out level rationally has become a hot topic deserving to be further investigated. This paper firstly studies the online retailers’discount pricing and the shift of market demand during promotions based on consumer choice theory. Then the rationale and evolution path of online retailers’strategic rationing decision are analyzed with consideration of capacity constraint. This paper shows that the ex post strategic rationing outperforms the fully fulfilled strategy when the unit operating cost increases and exceeds a certain threshold point. The ex ante strategic rationing is more profitable than the ex post strategic rationing. With more and more popularity of online purchasing,our study facilitates the understanding of the operations management of internet business and also helps to achieve the healthy development of e-commerce in China.
ZHANG Yuan-kai , HU Xiang-pei , HUANG Min-fang , SUN Li-jun
2019, 22(10):24-36+100.
Abstract:Order splitting is one of the challenging problems faced by online supermarkets with multiple warehouses in one metropolitan areas. This paper proposes a package consolidation strategy,aimed to reduce the number of packages splitted,to fulfill split orders,which can effectively reduce the shipping cost,customer disturbance,and environmental pollution by the packages. To minimize the total order fulfillment cost,the paper models for the split strategy and the package consolidation strategy respectively,based upon which establishes the economic decision model. The economic decision model is analyzed in terms of the number of orders and the average number of split orders and the conditions when the the package consolidation strategy is applicable is derived. Managerial insights are also given. The numerical experiments verify the analytical results and managerial insights,which may guide online supermarkets in applying the package consolidation strategy in practice.
2019, 22(10):37-54.
Abstract:Based on tick data of CSI800 index components during three years,this paper classifies the transaction orders into large,medium and small ones,and analyzes the relationship between pre-jump orders and jumps and the predictive power of pre-jump orders on jumps. Event study and regressions based on both the jump sample and information matched with the jump sample show that there are obvious and gradually strengthening abnormal trades before the jumps consistent with the jump directions,and that these abnormal trades have significant correlations with the probability,direction,size and matched information of the jumps. Further forecasting analyses show that abnormal trades can also promote the model’s performance on forecasting jumps after controlling liquidity measures. These results indicate that there are information leakages before jumps in the market,and that the leakages spread over time. Besides,event study,regressions and forecasting power comparisons all show that the medium orders before jumps are more informative than large and small orders,so stealth trading exists before extreme price changes in Chinese stock markets.
XU Qi-fa , ZHUO Xing-xuan , JIANG Cui-xia
2019, 22(10):55-71.
Abstract:In order to accurately predict market interest rates,a novel Reverse Restricted MIDAS ( RR-MI-DAS) model is developed on the basis of the MIDAS and RU-MIDAS models. The RR-MIDAS model can be applied to the prediction of high frequency variables using low frequency variables when the frequency mismatch is pretty large. SHIBOR is used as a representative of market interest rates,and an empirical analysis of SHIBOR forecasts is conducted. The empirical results show that the RR-MIDAS model outperforms the others in terms of goodness of fit and prediction ability since it is able to explore the dynamic relationships among var iables. The results show that both macroeconomic variables and the capital market information could influence the money supply and demand in one week,or even one day,and will quickly lead to a change of SHIBOR.Moreover,robustness tests are implemented to illustrate the efficacy of the RR-MIDAS model and the reliability of the empirical conclusions.
CHEN Jian , ZHANG Yi-fan , HONG Ji-min
2019, 22(10):72-81.
Abstract:When investors expect a downside jump of stock market returns,they usually use the out-of-the-money ( OTM) put options to hedge the tail risk. As a result,the OTM put options contain the information of future possible stock market crash. According to the concept of lower partial moment,this paper uses the model-free method to estimate an option implied tail risk and finds that it can significantly predict the expected stock market return. After controlling for the economic variables and other option implied variables,the predictive power of our tail risk measure is still significant. Thus,our option implied tail risk measure contains additional forecasting information beyond that implicit in the alternative return predictors.
SHEN Hua-yu , WANG Xing , WU Xiao-hui
2019, 22(10):82-100.
Abstract:Voluntary performance guarantee in mergers and acquisitions is a unique phenomenon in China,which has become one of the hottest topics among academia and media. However,the research on the voluntary performance guarantee in mergers and acquisitions is rare. From the cost-revenue perspective,this paper introduces game theory into the analysis of this topic. The results show that the likelihood,as well as the amount,of the voluntary performance guarantee increase with the target firms’information asymmetry. The above results are still robust after using instrumental variables in a two stage regression,the PSM test,substituting independent variables,and the two-way clustering test. Further studies show that institutional investors in the target firm can weaken the positive effect of the information asymmetry on both the likelihood and the amount of voluntary performance guarantee. These conclusions may be helpful in bringing some inspirations to governments,listed and target firms,and individual investors.
WU Yan-ran , WANG Kai , SU Song , LI Rui , HAN Li-yan
2019, 22(10):101-126.
Abstract:This paper first explores the effects of two limited rational factors,investor sentiment and CBFS ( chasing behavior of fund splits) ,on PFR ( Performance-Flow Relationship) of mutual funds,which could be supported by Framing Bias,Anchoring effect,Limited attention and Catering theory. Three main conclusions are derived. First,investors in the Chinese mutual fund market chase past fund performance and there is no redemption anomaly. Second,investors’rational behavior will be affected by their limited rational behavior:investor sentiment and CBFS not only have significant positive impacts on the net inflow of funds,but also have impacts on the PFR of mutual funds. In other words,investor sentiment will enhance the sensitivity of fund flow to fund’s absolute performance but weaken the sensitivity to both relative performance and star effects. CBFS would reduce the sensitivity of fund flows to both absolute and relative performance but would not affect star effects. Third,fund performance and investor sentiment influence the net flow mainly by influencing the purchasing rather than the redemption behavior of investors. Finally,investors’irrational chasing after sentiment and fund splits can damage their long-term returns.