• Volume 22,Issue 4,2019 Table of Contents
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    • Management theory: Epochal nature and modernization of theoretical character

      2019, 22(4):1-10.

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      Abstract:Epochal nature of theoretical character is the theory’s deep concern for and response to epoch features and vital issues in management. Modernization of theoretical character is the management theory’s ability property of developing and keeping pace with the time. Epochal nature is the life representation of management theory,and modernization is the freshness of management theory. The unity of epochal nature and modernization constitutes the basic character of management theory. Modernization and sinicization of management theory are two basic forms of Chinese management theory’s practice and development. Modernization is universal tenet, sinicization is the concrete form of modernization and the way of management theory development in China. Modernization moves towards Chinese management practice through sinicization. Chinese management practice and the development of theory advance and actuate the modernization of theory,and that is integrated into advanced civilization of management theory. It is the basic reality and the development orientation of Chinese management.

    • A discussion of the epochal nature of management theory

      2019, 22(4):11-13.

      Abstract (140) HTML (0) PDF 146.88 K (809) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Management is the first thing with characters since the formation of mankind. Naturally,the management theory,which is the refinement of management experiences,is also characterful and has a revolving epochal nature. The epochal nature of management theory is fundamentally derived from the evolution of human labor,and it is embodied in four aspects: management thought,management organization,management means and management education. The development of the times has brought us an excellent opportunity of achieving the innovation,development and breakthrough of management theory.

    • Vitality and practical value of management theory: Also on its epochality and epochalization

      2019, 22(4):14-15.

      Abstract (221) HTML (0) PDF 123.29 K (858) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Management theory is a branch of scientific theory. The essence of theory is the development of human thought and cognition,which is divided into the classical and the non-classical. The inaugurators of classical theories possess extraordinary cognitive ability and profound thought,whose achievements have high inheritance value and strong vitality. Therefore,both of the value and prospect of management theory research,whether the deduction of classical theory or the formation of theory from excavation of the law of practice,depend on the interpretation of management thoughts and the critical thinking.

    • Pricing of callable contingent convertible bonds with extension risk

      2019, 22(4):16-26.

      Abstract (351) HTML (0) PDF 487.34 K (1054) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:The financial crisis since 2007 has highlighted the fragility of the banking system. CoCo bonds have been a hot topic as both a solution to the“too big to fail”problem and a measure by which financial institutions can raise the capital adequacy ratio and save themselves during crises. In this paper,CoCo bonds with extension risk are analyzed. Stock price and Core Tier 1 Ratio are simultaneously simulated and copula functions are introduced to measure the correlation between stock price and Core Tier 1 Ratio. CIR model is used to describe the term structure of interest rates,and Monte-Carlo simulation method is employed to price callable CoCo bonds. Further,callable CoCo bonds issued by Barclays bank are applied to test the performance of our model. Finally,the paper designs the Chinese version of CoCo bonds,and gives the numerical calculation and scenario analysis.

    • Bond return predictability and its economic value in Chinese market

      2019, 22(4):27-52.

      Abstract (291) HTML (0) PDF 1.15 M (885) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Bond return predictability and its economic value have always been a hot but controversial topic. Using regression models,this paper examines both the statistical and economic significance of bond return predictability in Chinese markets,and analyzes the non-Markov and stochastic volatility properties of bond yields.On the basis of the above analysis,a systematic method is proposed for constructing non-Markov dynamic term structure models ( DTSMs) under a generalized Heath-Jarrow-Morton ( HJM) framework with stochastic volatility,which is then used to investigate the roles of the non-Markov property and stochastic volatility in bond return predictability and its economic gains realizing. Finally,this paper analyzes the economic drivers of bond return predictability. Empirical results show that bond return predictability in Chinese markets is statistically significant,which can also be converted into significant economic gains. The non-Markov property and stochastic volatility are of critical importance in the converting. Moreover,time-varying risk premia driven by the economic environment are the main sources of the bond return predictability in Chinese markets,while unspanned stochastic volatility factors also contain much information for future bond returns.

    • Informed trading,information uncertainty and stock risk premium

      2019, 22(4):53-74.

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      Abstract:This paper investigates the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading ( VPIN) for the stocks listed in CSI 300 index. Using VPIN as a proxy of information asymmetry,we examine the risk premia of information asymmetry and the relation between information asymmetry and information uncertainty. Our empirical results show that: ( 1) An increases in VPIN results in a larger bid-ask spread and liquidity risk,leading to a pounced risk premia in both cross-sectional and time series analyses. ( 2) VPIN dominates the factor of information uncertainty in explaining the excessive return,while information uncertainty also generates co-directional effects on VPIN. ( 3) VPIN remains significant after we control information uncertainty,size,momentum factors. Meanwhile,Fama-Macbeth analysis shows that the VPIN has no endogenous problem with traditional risk factors and is orthogonal to them. ( 4) Unusual risk premia and trading volumes which occur before companies’major announcements can be captured by the synchronized abnormal VPIN.

    • No news is bad news: The information asymmetry in China’s stock market

      2019, 22(4):75-91.

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      Abstract:This paper presents an augmented probability of informed trades ( APIN) ,and evidences its better ability to measure the informational asymmetry in China’s stock market than PIN. Information would determine the profit of stock tradings in a transitional stock market with insider-trading and a strict restriction for short-sale. In this case,“no news”investors would prefer more sales to buys to avoid loss. On one hand,investors without any news would attribute themselves to “inferior participants”in the trading game,meaning that“no news”is bad news; then they are apt to sell stocks. On the other hand,the sales ratio of“no news”investors would boost with the rise of informational asymmetry. Since“no news”investors always ask for higher bid prices than investors with real“bad news”,their sales would lead to a number of reductions of bid-ask spreads,resulting in significantly negative APIN-Spread connections and undervaluation of PIN for information asymmetry. In all,compared with PIN,APIN depicts the information asymmetry of China’s stock tradings more clearly,and better illustrates the case in which“no news”is“bad news”.

    • Return predictability in the Chinese stock markets

      2019, 22(4):92-109.

      Abstract (861) HTML (0) PDF 587.05 K (2993) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:This paper investigates the return predictability to understand the theoretical foundation of quantitative investments in Chinese stock markets. Eight factors ( book-to-market ratio,dividend-payout ratio,dividend-price ratio,dividend-yield ratio,earnings-price ratio,cash flow-price ratio,inflation rate,stock variance) are employed to carry out in-sample predictability tests by means of the feasible generalized least squares method ( FQGLS) . Out-of-sample predictability tests are conducted in different economic cycles. It is found that: 1) The portfolios can be successfully predicted and the predictability is dependent on the cycle and the portfolio type; 2) The predictability of most portfolios can be explained by the conditional CAPM model;and 3) The return predictability in industries is significantly negatively correlated with industry concentration.

    • Business models of hybrid E-commerce platforms: The number of third-party

      2019, 22(4):110-126.

      Abstract (779) HTML (0) PDF 804.92 K (1971) Comment (0) Favorites

      Abstract:Platform is a globalization business model,and its related economy also becomes one remarkable economic phenomenon. Hybrid e-commerce platforms,such as JD and Amazon,serve as intermediaries providing marketplace for third-party sellers and buyers,and resellers selling competing products to consumers.The paper tries to investigate the following questions through pyramid spatial model. Why does some products have a lot of third-party sellers,while others have fewer? Are platforms with more third-party sellers better than a hybrid e-commerce platform? Why does the price of online direct sale lie among the prices of third-party sellers? Which,online direct sales or third-party services,is dominant in the total profit of hybrid e-commerce platforms? Our analysis indicates that product features,such as product costs,transaction costs,market size,and so on,lead to the different numbers of third-party sellers. Each hybrid e-commerce platform should control the number of third-party sellers: neither too much nor too little. A moderate price of online direct sales increases sales,and improves prices. Online direct sales dominate the total profit of platforms when there are fewer third-party sellers,while third-party services dominate the profit when there are many third-party sellers.Additionally,the basic model is also extended to two-sided platforms. It is concluded that JD model is better than Tmall model,and that Tmall Model is better than both Taobao model and Meituan model,given fixed N,r and f. As for two-sided platforms,two-party tariff pricing model is better than membership fee and usage fee pricing model.

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