LI Zhong-fei , YANG Xiao-xin , BAO Te
2021, 24(5):1-25.
Abstract:The role of education from top universities in the career development and performance of mutual fund managers in China is studied. It is found that graduates from top universities are more likely to start their career in the mutual fund industry,and that it takes a shorter time for them to become fund managers. The size and management fee of their first funds are larger,but their performance is not better than their peers who do not graduate from top universities. The elite school premium in mutual fund industry is more likely to be explained by signaling theory than alumni networks. In later stages of their career,education from top universities has no impact on either the promotion or the salary of fund managers. Performances and abilities are what determines the later stage developments of fund managers. Hence,education from top universities itself is only a stepping-stone and should not be used as determinants of promotion or salary.
YAO Jia-quan , FENG Xu , WANG Zan-jun , JI Rong-rong , ZHANG Wei
2021, 24(5):26-46.
Abstract:Tone and sentiment in financial contexts,containing emotional information expressed by managers in public listed firms and individual investors,affect stock market. By restructuring dictionaries and using deep learning model LSTM,the paper constructs two Chinese sentiment dictionaries for formal and informal texts in Finance respectively. Based on the constructed dictionaries,tone measures of annual filings and sentiment proxies of social media for Chinese public firms are proposed. Our tone measures of annual filings and sentiment proxies of social media can effectively predict stock return,trading volume,return volatility,unexpected earnings and other market factors and perform better than indices made by other commonly used sentiment lexicons. Additionally,our tone measures of annual filings and sentiment proxies of social media have predictive abilities for crash risk of public firms. This research provides an analytical tool for big data application in financial market and offers decision-making supports in financial market forecasting,monitoring,and other activities in the big data era.
CHEN Zhang-hang-jian , WU Yue , LI Shi-bing , REN Fei
2021, 24(5):47-69.
Abstract:Previous research on the influencing factors of stock price co-movement,based mainly on the theory of Social Embeddedness,suggested that the information diffusion function of listed companies’social relations,such as Institutional Ownership,is one important factor. There are a large number of individual investors in Chinese stock market,where the impact of information interaction among individual investors through social media on stock price co-movement is becoming increasingly prominent. Using the data from Eastmoney, this paper investigates the impact of individual investor behavior on stock price co-movement from a more microscopic perspective,based on the Effective Information Theory and the Social Embedding Theory. The empirical results show that the higher the weight of edges in the information diffusion network,which is based on information interaction,the greater the correlation coefficient between stock prices. Furthermore,massive and frequent posts or replies by users through social media can promote the spread of stock information,thus affecting stock price co-movement. In addition,the information flow generated by individuals has a predictive effect on stock price co-movement. The above results show that stock information diffusion through individual information interaction is another important factor affecting stock price co-movement. The conclusion is helpful in deepening the understanding of the underlying causes of risk conduction in the stock market and provides theoretical guidance for risk management in Chinese stock market.
YU Li-sheng , LAN Yi-yang , WANG Yan-yan
2021, 24(5):70-86.
Abstract:Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2016,this paper examines how superstar CEOs affect negative information disclosure. Our results indicate that superstar CEOs will significantly increase the probability of bad news hoarding. Further research finds that the probability of financial restatement increases after CEOs become famous,and the likelihood of hiding negative information declines once superstar CEOs exit the list. Mechanism analysis shows that superstar CEOs suppress bad news through management power. In addition,superstar CEOs with lower earnings quality before their rise to fame are more likely to hide negative information after their rise to fame. These results indicate that although superstar CEOs may have the potential to improve company image,the fame might decrease the effectiveness of corporate internal governance. Our research expands the literature on how superstar CEOs influence company decision-making process,enriches the literature of bad news hoarding and sheds light on the dark side of media. The paper also has important practical implications for maintaining the stable and healthy development of capital market in China.
LI Yuan-peng , SUN Qian , TIAN Shu
2021, 24(5):87-96.
Abstract:On December 2,2016,Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange simultaneously revised the Implementation Rules for Margin Trading and Short Selling. According to the new rules,stocks with P /E ratios greater than 300 will no longer be eligible as financing collaterals. This paper uses this institutional change as a natural experiment to test its impact on margin purchasing and stock prices. The results show that: first,the revised margin trading rules effectively reduce the overall margin purchase amount in the market,especially for stocks with a high price earnings ratio and stocks with a high financing leverage; second,the revised margin trading rules have generated some crowding out effect,by relatively increasing the margin purchase for high beta and high turnover companies; third,the decline of margin purchase significantly affects stock prices,especially for the stocks with low price elasticity. The evidence suggests that,when formulating deleveraging rules in various fields,a multi-dimensional index system may help mitigate associated crowding out effect. It will also be helpful to take into consideration the impact on market supply and demand condition as well as price elasticity of assets,so as to avoid large fluctuations in asset prices.
2021, 24(5):97-109.
Abstract:Under the given economic environment,this paper studies the equilibrium model of supply and demand among self-owned house buyers,investors,and developers. By comparing with the housing market with rigid demand,it is found that the speculative behavior of investors is an important factor affecting the change of housing prices. In particular,extrapolative investors have a boosting effect on the trend of housing prices,and mean-reverting investors not only have a stabilizing effect on the market but also increase the market complexity. When there is an interaction among different trading agents in the housing market,housing prices will deviate from their benchmark price,depend on their paths,fluctuate hugely,and fall into the trap of low housing prices. The government can regulate the housing market by adjusting basic economic variables such as down payment ratio and development cost. Compared with the down payment ratio regulation,the development cost adjustment not only can adjust the benchmark price,but also can change the impact of investors’behavior on housing prices and play a comprehensive role in adjusting the market. Therefore,the development cost adjustment is more effective than the down payment ratio regulation.
2021, 24(5):110-126.
Abstract:Whether the skills of open-ended funds improve their performance has been paid close attention for a long time. Computing the excess returns of funds relative to the risk-free rate and to the self-reported benchmark rate,the paper considers the performance of 437 funds established before Jan.1st 2013. The empirical results based on the recent q-factor model and the daily data between Jan.1st 2005 and Dec.31st 2017 show that: (1) the q-factor model has a good explanation power for the excess returns of open-ended funds,(2) the performances of funds can be overestimated when the excess returns are computed by the risk-free rate, (3) the managers of open-ended funds have a weak power of stock selection and a relative good power of short term,rather than long term,timing selection,which can improve short-term fund performance to a certain extent,and (4) the open-ended funds prefer stocks with good profitability or high investment levels.