Abstract:Under the framework of open economy，this paper develops an endogenous dynamic system consisting of the foreign exchange interventions of the central bank，the fluctuations of the ＲMB exchange rate and changes in credit spreads． The theoretical analysis explains the micro-linkage mechanism among the three factors and reveals non-linear endogenous relations among them． To capture the non-linear linkage effect，an empirical study is conducted utilizing the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility ( SV-TVP-SVAＲ) with monthly data from 2010 to 2018． The empirical findings suggest that the non-linear linkage effect has distinct time-varying characteristics． The stabilizing effect of the central bank’s interventions on the ＲMB exchange rate is decreasing． The linkage effect of the credit spreads variations among bonds with different maturities and ratings are asymmetricly related with the other two factors．The findings can deepen the understanding of the relationship between the exchange rate and the credit spread，provide theoretical support for all participants in the bond market to prevent risks，and have some enlightenment for the central bank to control ＲMB exchange rate．

Abstract:An explicit deposit insurance system was introduced to cover all depository financial institutions in China to decrease the probability of systemic bank crisis on May 1,2015. However, it is still uncertain whether deposit insurance will reduce bank systemic risk: it depends on a country's unique institutional background. Using the panel data of listed banks in China during 2010 q4 to 2017 q2, the paper takes the financial institutions, interconnectedness structure and market capitalization into consideration in the measurement of systemic risk. Based on this measurement, the paper further explores the effect of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk and the possible underlying channels. It is found that explicit deposit insurance significantly increases the systemic risk of non-state-owned banks in China. Following the introduction of China's deposit insurance, non-state-owned banks will engage in shadow banking more actively, resulting in higher bank systemic risk. The paper has certain reference significance on strengthening macro-prudential management of shadow banking, introducing differential deposit insurance rate based on bank systemic risk and improving the assessment of systemically important financial institutions.

Abstract:This paper uses the high-frequency data of 50ETF options to study the predictive power of net buying presure (NBP hereafter) for the underlying stock index return and volatility, and compares the difference between different weighting methods, call and put options, options with different degrees of moneyness and information asymmetry. It is found that 50ETF options' NBP conveys both the return and volatility information of the underlying stock index. The information of Delta-aggregated NBP has already been conveyed by simply aggregated NBP. Call, put options and options with different degrees of moneyness contain different information on underlying stocks' return and volatility. Simply aggregated, Gamma-and Vega-aggregated NBP convey the volatility information. The NBP of ATM and OTM options has better predictability for volatility than ITM options. Moreover, asymmetric effects of NBPs on index return and volatility are identified.

Abstract:In addition to the salaried employee, self-employment (including self-employment with employees and own-account workers)is another important mode of job participation for migrants. Based on the data of 2016 national migrants survey, this paper uses Mlogit model to examine the determination mechanism of self-employment, and measures the average and non-linear income difference by propensity score matching and unconditional quantile treatment effect model respectively. The results indicate that: 1) Education is conducive to self-employment with employees instead of own-account workers. Males are more likely to be self-employed than females, and individual's hukou status represents insignificant relationship with self-employment. The professional technicians do not tend to be self-employed, while the unskilled labor in the service industry is more likely to be self-employed. 2) Self-employment with employees enjoys the highest income level on average, followed by own-account workers and salaried employees. Particularly, such income difference is wider in more developed regions. 3) Relative to salaried employees, the income of the two types of self-employment rises with income levels, and self-employment with employees enjoys the widest income gap. The income difference between different labor participation modes is mainly caused by varied individual endowments.

Abstract:A two-period dynamic pricing model for competing firms is established with game theory to investigate the behavior-based pricing (BBP) strategy of quality-differentiated products and its impact on firms' profits. The main results show that: 1) The relative production efficiency and firms' decision order are two key factors influencing the choice of firms' BBP strategy; 2) When the relative production efficiency differs greatly, BBP protects disadvantageous firms’ profits but damages advantageous firms' profits, thereby intensifying competition; 3)If the firm who can monopolize customer information uses BBP, contrary to our intuition, not only this firm's own profits but also its competitor's profits will be hampered, and resulting in a "lose-lose" situation. Finaly, an actual enterprise example verifies our models and reveals management implications.

Abstract:Spare parts are critical to delivery of after-sales service, and component obsolescence can affect spare parts replenishment, which leads to longer product downtime and reduces product availability. In practice, life time purchase is used widely to deal with part obsolescence; yet its impact on suply chain management has not been well studied in the literature. This paper proposes a dynamic suply chain game model which captures product sales and after-sales service simultaneously. The interactions between the optimal decisions for product order quantity, pricing, and spare parts life time purchase quantity are analyzed, and the impacts of warranty and part reacquisition cost on the equilibrium outcome and the suplier's profit are discussed. The results show that when the reacquisition cost is low, the suplier should offer long waranty while reducing the life time buy quantity to maximize the benefit of improved product availability. In the meantime, the technical standard for spare parts quantity should be reduced properly. When the reacquisition cost is high, the suplier is encouraged to reduce the waranty period and to purchase more spare parts to better control the cost of replenishing the obsolete parts. Then, the technical standard for spare parts quantity can also be set higher.

Abstract:Based on the subsidy policies to increase the adoption of new energy vehicles and upgrade the overall industry, dynamic game models involving the government, manufacturers, retailers and consumers are established to analyze the impacts of policies involving unit subsidies, sales incentives and differentiated unit subsidies. Three specific policy characteristics are introduced into our models, including both quantity target and high-quality development of the industry and subsidy budget constraints. The results show that given the positive subsidy performance, unit subsidies to manufacturers and consumers can increase the market demand for new energy vehicles and the profit of manufacturers and retailers. Aditional sales incentives can improve the market outcome of unit subsidies and increase the performance of government subsidies. The differentiated unit subsidies can reduce the demand for low-quality vehicles and increase the demand for high-quality vehicles without reducing the total quantity demanded, thereby promoting the upgrading of the industry. The optimal value of unit subsidy is mainly determined by the quantity target set by the government and the unit cost of the manufacturer. The higher the quantity target and unit cost, the higher the unit subsidy, but the lower the government subsidy performance.

Abstract:Big data and data science are emerging as a new paradigm and tool in management research. In such contexts, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) has launched a major research program since 2015: Big Data driven Management and Decision (BDMD), so as to promote China's fundamental research on big data. Text mining and bibliometric analysis are applied to studing the textual information of 114 granted projects under the BDMD major research program as well as nearly 6000 articles from 51 leading international journals over the last 8 years. Our comparative analysis is performed at both the keyword-level and topic-level. The paper also attempts to examine those literatures explicitly claiming big data along with the PAGE framework and by classifing them into different categories. Our research highlights the dynamic BDMD research landscape, with its focus constantly moving to new challenges due to new technological developments. Our findings are able to reveal the current research interests and the revolution trends in the field of BDMD. Furthermore, the comparative analysis between NSFC grants data and bibliometric data provides a robust roadmap for future research in the BDMD field.