Abstract:Economists’comprehensive judgments and confidence levels are increasingly valuable in today’s environment of heightened economic fluctuations and uncertainty. However, existing economist confidence indexes are not sufficiently regarded due to their low frequency, high compilation costs, and lack of timeliness. This study constructs a monthly Chief Economist Confidence Index and its subindexes (CECI) by leveraging online text data from the “Chief Economists Forum” and employing cuttingedge natural language processing technologies, specifically the TextRank+FinBERT method. The paper finds that the CECI trends consistently with the National Bureau of Statistics’Quarterly Economist Confidence Index, but features stronger timeliness and a higher update frequency. Compared to the confidence indexes of other economic entities, the confidence of chief economists serves as a more effective indicator of the business cycle. In terms of macroeconomic forecasting, the CECI series can significantly enhance the outofsample forecasting performance for key macroeconomic variables. This study represents a valuable attempt to construct business cycle indicators and conduct macroeconomic forecasts using artificial intelligence methods. The methodology can be applied to the construction of other highfrequency business cycle indexes.

Abstract:Based on mental accounting theory, this research explores the effect of windfall money on purchase intention for new products through six studies. The results show that consumers who receive unexpected windfall money are more willing to purchase new products than those who do not receive unexpected windfall money (Studies 1a, 1b, and 2). Moreover, perceived risk is the underlying mechanism (Studies 3a and 3b). Product involvement plays a moderating role: The effect of windfall money on purchase intention disappears for highinvolvement new products but persists for lowinvolvement new products (Study 4). This research expands the research scope of windfall money, enriches the influencing factors of purchase intention for new products, and provides evidence for companies to present the discount information.

Abstract:Drawing on the uncertainty management theory, this study explores whether the business environment influences entrepreneurs’subjective wellbeing and how this relationship varies by entrepreneurial type. Specifically, this study examines the effect of business environment on the subjective wellbeing of opportunity entrepreneurs and necessity entrepreneurs. Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, the World Bank’s Doing Business Report, and the World Development Index, a multilevel database is constructed, covering 69 countries and 19 577 individuals. The model is tested using multilevel linear regression. The results show that the business environment has a positive effect on entrepreneurs’subjective wellbeing, and the subjective wellbeing of opportunity entrepreneurs is higher than that of the necessity entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the positive effect of the business environment on subjective wellbeing is stronger for opportunity entrepreneurs than for necessity entrepreneurs. This study extends the significance of optimizing the business environment from encouraging entrepreneurial entry to enhancing entrepreneurs’subjective wellbeing. However, it also highlights that such optimization may widen the wellbeing gap between opportunity and necessity entrepreneurs. These findings contribute to the literature on the antecedents of entrepreneurs’wellbeing by integrating macro and microlevel perspectives. This study provides valuable insights for improving the business environment in China to enhance the wellbeing of both opportunity and necessity entrepreneurs.

Abstract:The beautiful ecological environment carries people’s expectations for a better life in the new era.Using the “demandwillingnessability” analytical framework, this study investigates the economic impact of public environmental pressure on corporate innovation. It is found that environmental protection pressure from the public promotes enterprises innovation, reflected in both the increased quantity and improved quality of innovation.High public visibility boosts the positive impact of public environmental protection pressure on enterprise innovation.From the perspective of transmission mechanism, this promoting effect is achieved through mechanisms such as enhancing enterprise environmental governance needs through government environmental law enforcement, developing longterm willingness through orientation, and facilitating knowledge spillover of environmental technology.Depending on specific situations, enterprises strongly constrained by organizational rigidity enjoy a more significant promoting effect, whereas state ownership and employment dependence can weaken the effect. The findings of this study are of great value for deepening our understanding of the relationship between environmental governance and economic transformation and upgrading.

Abstract:The knowledge spillover effect of inventor mobility is bidirectional, and there is also a knowledge spillin effect on the source enterprises. Based on a matched dataset of inventors and patent citations from Chinese listed enterprises, this paper investigates the impact of inventor mobility on knowledge spillin effect. The paper finds that the mobility of inventors has a knowledge spillin effect on source enterprises, which lasts 12 years. Further, the mobility of higher performance inventor has a more obvious effect on the knowledge spillin. The mobility of inventors also has a more significant effect on knowledge spillin when the source enterprises are nonSOEs or the target enterprises are SOEs. Besides, it is demonstrated that the mobility of inventors takes effect mainly through the following channels: Cooperative R&D between source enterprises and target enterprises, and a favorable network position in the inventors’directed mobility network. Additional analyses suggest that this positive effect varies based on different enterprise characteristics. This paper contributes to the current research on human capital flow from the direction of the inventors’mobility and knowledge spillin, providing important practical insights for enterprises to accumulate firm social capital and promote knowledge spillin to improve enterprise innovation.

Abstract:Supply chain stability is an important component of national economic security. As a common item in supply chain purchase and sale transactions, the allowance for doubtful accounts is particularly noteworthy for its potential impact on the duration of supply chain relationships. The paper examines the impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts on the duration of supply chain relationships, using a research sample of Ashare listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2022. The study finds that customer allowance for doubtful accounts is significantly negatively related to the duration of the supply chain relationship. Mechanism tests indicate that customer allowance for doubtful accounts increases firms’finance, credit, and market risks through the supply chain risk contagion effect, prompting firms to interrupt current supply chain relationships due to riskaversion motivations. Further analysis shows that the negative impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts is more significant in samples with lower prudence in allowance for doubtful accounts, higher downstream discourse power of suppliers, lower upstream discourse power of customers, and lower supply chain relationship survivability. Economic policy uncertainty exacerbates the negative impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts on the duration of supply chain relationships, while a good business environment can weaken this adverse effect. The paper enriches the research related to the supply chain risk contagion effect and the duration of supply chain relationships from the perspective of customer allowance for doubtful accounts, and also has policy implications for enhancing supply chain resilience and risk resistance, as well as maintaining supply chain security and stability.

Abstract:Twopillar policies constitute a crucial part of the postcrisis financial stabilization framework. As regards ameliorating the twopillar regulatory framework and mitigating banking sector risks, it is crucial to examine the effect of twopillar policies on bank risktaking in a systematical way. Hence, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism between the twopillar policies and bank risktaking from a micro perspective. Based on this, an empirical study is conducted using banklevel panel data from 262 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2020, to test the effects. The findings are as follows: Contractionary monetary policy and macroprudential regulation both exert a marginal reducing effect on bank risktaking, while loose monetary policy exerts a risk spillover effect on banks, which can be mitigated by macroprudential regulation. Mechanism analysis shows that macroprudential regulation mitigates the spillover effect of monetary policy by alleviating the negative impact of lowinterest rate monetary policy on bank charter value and by attenuating the procyclical adjustment of bank leverage, thereby performing a coordinated riskabating effect. In terms of crosssectional dimension, interbank connection exerts an asymmetric influence on the coordination effect of twopillar policies on bank risktaking. In a monetaryeasing environment, an increase in the interbank connection level weakens the mitigating effect of macroprudential regulation on the risk spillover generated by loose monetary policy. In a monetarytightening environment, an increase in interbank connection level worsens the weakening effect of macroprudential regulation on the riskreducing effect of contractionary monetary policy. Besides, twopillar policies generate a better coordinated riskabating effect on larger banks or those with a lower proportion of noninterest rate revenue. In terms of the time dimension, interest rate marketization strengthens the coordinated riskabating effect of twopillar policies, while increased monetary policy uncertainty weakens that effect.

Abstract:Since the multifractal detrended partial correlation analysis method (MFDPXA) cannot measure the asymmetric dependence relationship under different trends (upward and downward), this paper proposes the multifractal asymmetric detrended partial crosscorrelation analysis method (MFADPXA). Furthermore, the paper proposes a removing factors timedelayed detrended crosscorrelation analysis (ETDDCCA) to study the risk transmission direction between stock markets. Taking Shanghai Component Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Hang Seng Index as research objects, this paper empirically analyzes the asymmetric crosscorrelation and risk transmission between pairwise stock markets after removing the common influencing factors. The results show that, after removing the influence of one stock market, the longmemory crosscorrelation between the other two stock markets is weak. When the return trend is upward, the long memory crosscorrelation increases, and when the return trend is down, the crosscorrelation shows antipersistence. The degree of asymmetry is greater when the fluctuation is large. The local cross correlation between the pairwise stock markets shows a weakening trend over time. As the time lag increases, the antipersistent crosscorrelation between the twotwo stock markets is enhanced. The risk of the Shenzhen Component index is mainly transmitted to the Shanghai Component Index, and the risk of the Shanghai Component Index is mainly transmitted to the Hang Seng Index. The Hang Seng Index has a stronger impact on the Shenzhen Component Index. This study has implications for reunderstanding the intrinsic dependent structure and risk transmission of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong stock markets, crossmarket portfolio, and risk management.

Abstract:Chinese mutual fund investors tend to chase funds with better historical performance and higher idiosyncratic volatility, leading to huge losses when fund performance reverses in the future. By incorporating the uncertainty of the fund returngenerating process into the investor learning model, this paper theoretically shows that investors with insufficient financial literacy are subject to the optimism bias while assessing the fund’s skills. This behavior results in an asymmetric impact of a fund’s idiosyncratic volatility on fund flowperformance sensitivity: When a fund performs well (poorly), the higher the fund’s idiosyncratic volatility, the higher (lower) the fund flowperformance sensitivity. The results show that a fund’s idiosyncratic volatility can explain the fund flowperformance convexity puzzle: The higher the fund’s idiosyncratic volatility, the more significant the fund flowperformance convexity relationship. Furthermore, by decomposing a fund’s idiosyncratic volatility into a persistent component (longrun idiosyncratic volatility) and a shortterm volatile component (shortrun idiosyncratic volatility), the paper finds that only longrun idiosyncratic volatility has a significant impact on the fund flowperformance convexity, while shortrun idiosyncratic volatility does not. Longrun idiosyncratic volatility does not help to improve the predictive power of historical fund performance on future performance. It significantly impacts individual investors’ fund flows, suggesting that this effect is due to investors’ behavioral biases. The research in this paper has important policy implications: The regulation of fund companies’ marketing should be strengthened to prevent funds from going viral. More importantly, investor education should be vigorously strengthened to enhance investors’sophistication and help them circumvent the optimism bias when learning the fund’s skills for investors with limited financial literacy.