Abstract:The advent of the Big Data era has brought unprecedented opportunities as well as challenges to CPI forecasting. Making full use of high-dimensional data and developing interpretable machine learning methods for forecasting are of great significance both theoretically and practically. Thus, this paper constructs a large monthly macroeconomic dataset for China, which consists of 239 variables across 9 categories. Based on this large dataset, the paper evaluates the forecasting performances of 13 common methods for CPI, including traditional time series models, regularized regressions, factor models, and ensemble methods. Further, based on the idea of control variables, a derivative algorithm for machine learning is constructed to explain the results and conduct the mechanism analysis. According to the results, random forest and XGBoost exhibit superior predictive performance, especially in the medium and long-term horizons. Further investigation proves that the non-linearity and non-sparsity of ensemble methods play a vital role for better forecast precision. Meanwhile, according to the variable importance measures of the two ensemble methods, variables in the autoregressive, price, and employment categories contribute a large portion of predictive power, which is in line with economic theory and stylized facts.

Abstract:Since 2000, housing prices in China have generally risen faster than other consumer goods, yet the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate does not appear to fully capture the impact of home purchases on living costs. Excluding housing prices from the CPI may distort the inflation indicator and undermine the precision of macroeconomic policy. This paper proposes a “home purchase cost approach”, which interprets owner-occupied housing expenditure as the opportunity cost of acquiring housing services through homeownership. An overlapping generations (OLG) model that incorporates various methods of measuring owner-occupied housing consumption into a unified theoretical framework is developed. Using this approach, we recalculate the owner-occupied housing expenditure and price for urban households in China and adjust the urban CPI accordingly. The findings show that the home purchase cost approach effectively incorporates housing price information while exhibiting favorable statistical properties, outperforming the current equivalent rent method. It more accurately reflects living costs, particularly when housing prices rise rapidly while rents remain stable. Between 2015 and 2021, this approach implies that owner-occupied housing expenditures accounted for 16.1% of the urban consumption basket, 7 percentage points higher than the existing method; the annual inflation rate of owner-occupied housing prices was 6.7%(5.4 percentage points higher); and the urban CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7%(0.7 percentage points higher).

Abstract:Based on the current situation of stranded assets faced by energy companies under the background of environmental protection policies, this paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model including heterogeneous energy production firms and fossil fuel asset accumulation decisions. It discusses the carbon emission reduction paths corresponding to different environmental policies and the impact of emission reduction on social welfare under policy regulation. It is found that emission reduction policies lead to a decline in the value of fossil fuel reserves held by energy companies, resulting in the bursting of the “carbon bubble” and the gradual stranding of fossil fuel assets. This affects the financing and production of the energy sector, ultimately causing a decline in total output and consumption. Compared with financial policies and industrial policies, tax policies for emission reduction result in smaller welfare losses. Among different tax policies, energy taxes are the most effective in reducing distortions and improving social welfare. In terms of the “carbon bubble” caused by the stranding of fossil energy reserve assets, the “carbon bubble” caused by an energy tax is the smallest, while the “carbon bubble” caused by a fossil fuel reserve investment tax is the largest.

Abstract:This article constructs an input-output matrix of the “provincial-industry” dimension within the context of “Dual Circulation” by embedding IRIOT into WIOT, and designs an inter-industry economic correlation network with spillover and catch-up effects. Based on the theory of complex networks, the level of industrial centrality in 14 manufacturing industries in 30 provinces of China from 2001 to 2013 is measured. The relative index of per capita output growth rate is used to measure the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry. The impact of industrial centrality on pro-poor growth is thoroughly explored, and the different mechanisms of spillover effects and catch-up effects are further distinguished. The results indicate that: 1)The improvement of international industrial centrality is not conducive to the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry, and the spillover effect further amplifies this negative impact. 2)The centrality of domestic industries has a significant promoting effect on the pro-poor growth of manufacturing, but it is mainly based on catch-up effects rather than spillover effects. 3)The regional characteristics of the impact of international and domestic industrial centrality on the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry are as follows: The strongest in the western region, followed by the central region, and the weakest in the eastern region. The industrial characteristics are as follows: Technology-intensive industries have the largest impact, followed by labor-intensive, and capital-intensive industries have the smallest impact. This study has important practical significance and reference value for promoting pro-poor growth in China’s manufacturing industry.

Abstract:The green management of megaprojects can mitigate the impact of construction activities on the regional ecological environment. However, given the long construction timelines and the difficulty in accurately predicting potential environmental damage, key stakeholders (i.e., contractors, owners, and environmental agencies) involved in the green management of the construction phase are susceptible to uncertainties when making green management decisions. This study integrates stochastic processes into evolutionary game theory, reconstructing a stochastic evolutionary game model among contractors, owners, and environmental agencies, exploring the strategic decision-making processes of these stakeholders in green management and analyzing the effects of various factors on their strategic choices. The findings reveal that if contractors adopt green construction, owners pursue service-oriented strategies, and environmental agencies conduct random inspections, a stable strategy set for green management would be achieved in megaprojects. Especially, strengthening the initial willingness of all players to cooperate in green management would effectively reduce decision-making volatility. Additionally, lower total environmental protection costs and a more reasonably proportion of these costs borne by owners could accelerate the achievement of a stable state in green management. Enhancing the social reputation of contractors could incentivize them to adopt green construction strategies, while positive feedback from contractors to owners could foster the development of service-oriented ownership. Moreover, the green management decisions of contractors and owners are particularly sensitive to random disturbances. The stochastic evolutionary game model proposed in this study extends traditional approaches to green management, and the vision of service-oriented ownership provides valuable insights into establishing long-term green management mechanisms in the practices of megaprojects.

Abstract:As competition in online retail becomes increasingly fierce, it is often considered wise to adopt strategies to mitigate or avoid direct competition. However, an interesting phenomenon has emerged on current e-commerce platforms: Some merchants are proactively providing advertising space for competitors within their online stores. This study, focusing on two competing online retailers, incorporates advertising commissions and heterogeneous consumer purchasing behavior to construct a game model between the retailers and their consumers. Based on this, the study explores their in-store advertising partnership strategies and advertising type selection and compares the equilibrium outcomes under three strategies: No advertising, price advertising, and persuasive advertising. The results show that choosing price or persuasive advertising becomes the optimal strategy for a retailer only when it has a cost advantage. Both types of advertising may lead to natural cooperation when commission rates are moderate, with price advertising generally achieving superior traffic-attracting effects. Within the natural cooperation region, the advertiser tends to favor price advertising in most cases; persuasive advertising can only become the optimal cooperative strategy when the cost differences between the two stores are small, coupled with a low commission and a high customer cross-channel switching cost. Numerical experiments further show that consumer switching cost negatively affects the profits of both retailers, while their impact on consumer surplus may vary in either direction. In addition, an increase in the proportion of cross-store searching consumers can potentially enhance the profits of both retailers simultaneously. This study can provide theoretical guidance and practical implications for retailers in selecting advertising cooperation strategies under competitive environments.

Abstract:Focusing on the defect that existing literature does not explicitly model B2C sharing businesses as time-sharing rentals, this paper introduces the concept of efficiency of sharing service operations (ESSO), which captures the turnover rate of the shared product in serving consumers. The paper then develops and solves a two-stage game-theoretic model in which a manufacturer chooses its operational strategies from the following three strategies: Traditional sale, internal B2C sharing business extension, and external B2C sharing business extension, in stage 1. In stage 2, the manufacturer and a third-party B2C sharing platform (when the external B2C sharing business extension is chosen) make their specific operational decisions. By solving for the subgame perfect equilibrium, the following main results are obtained. 1) The necessary condition under which the manufacturer chooses the internal (external) B2C sharing business extension is that the ESSO of the manufacturer (the third-party B2C sharing platform) goes beyond a threshold, and given that this necessary condition is satisfied, the manufacturer chooses the external B2C sharing business extension if and only if the ESSO of the third-party B2C sharing platform is high enough (relative to the ESSO of the manufacturer) and the manufacturer’s ESSO is not too high. Otherwise, the manufacture will choose the internal B2C sharing business extension. 2) If the third-party B2C sharing platform is characterized by its ESSO and its ability to meet sharing demand, Result 1) still holds qualitatively for any given level of the ability to meet sharing demand. Additionally, a substitutive relationship exists between these two dimensions regarding their impacts on the manufacturer’s choice of the internal B2C sharing business extension. 3) From stakeholders’ perspectives, for a given level of the manufacturer’s ESSO, the optimal choice of its operational strategy results in a win-win-win scenario for the manufacturer, consumers, and the social planner if and only if the ESSO of the third-party B2C sharing platform is either high enough or low enough. Otherwise, it leads to some loss in either consumer surplus or social welfare.

Abstract:The complexity and heterogeneity of firm supply chain adjustment in response to major external shocks require identification through micro-empirical analysis grounded in theoretical frameworks. Using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines how Chinese firms responded to this major import shocks by transferring their supply chainsacross borders, based on merged data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and the Chinese Customs Import and Export Database from 2007 to 2014.The findings reveal that after the earthquake disrupted supply chains, domestic intermediate goods importers are more inclined to establish diversified supply chain relationships with firms in other countries or regions. Heterogeneity tests indicate this tendency are more pronounced among foreign-owned enterprises, processing trade firms, industry leaders, imported intermediates only from Japan before earthquake as well as firms that are highly reliant on inputs imports from Japan.Further analysis shows that firms’ transnational supply chain diversification does not imply global dispersion but rather exhibits characteristics of regionalization and proximity. The capacity for supply chain restructuring is influenced by both internal and external information environments: Firms with more developed internal trade networks, access to information channels through neighboring trading firms, and support from trade intermediaries are better able to leverage information spillovers to quickly identify alternative suppliers and achieve efficient restructuring.This study enriches the micro-level evidence on corporate supply chain adjustments under major shocks and provides empirical insights for firms seeking to mitigate external risks and enhance supply chain security and stability.

Abstract:The living arrangement of the elderly is an important issue affecting the quality of life and wellbeing of the elderly. Influenced by the 〖JP2〗filial piety culture, children’s filial piety plays a crucial role in the elderly’s〖JP〗 decisions regarding their living arrangements. However, little is known about the role of filial attitudes. This study aims to explore the underlying mechanisms influencing the elderly’s decision-making behaviors within the filial piety culture by examining the effects of children’s unobservable filial attitudes on the elderly’s choice of living arrangements. Utilizing data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, an integrated choice and latent variable model is developed, which simultaneously incorporates the unobservable filial attitudes of children, the observable children’s filial enactments, as well as the sociodemographic characteristics and health status of the elderly into an integrated framework. This model enhances the explanatory capability towards the choice behavior of the elderly’s living arrangement. The results reveal the heterogeneity in the filial attitudes of children with different socio-economic attributes, demonstrating that both children’s filial attitudes and their filial behaviors have a significant impact on the living arrangement of the elderly. These findings are expected to provide implications for administrators to enhance the wellbeing of the elderly.

Abstract:The rapid development of cloud computing technology is transforming software vendors into cloud service providers. Unlike traditional sales of software, cloud computing services rely on close collaboration among participants in the computing ecosystem. This collaboration generates new modes of value co-creation. Using the SAP’s cloud computing services as a case, the paper delves into the interactions among software/platform vendors, infrastructure providers, and service providers, elucidating three value co-creation mechanisms: The exchange mode based on complementary resource sharing, the addition mode based on complementary resource addition, and the coalescence mode based on complementary resource synergistic integration. This study enriches the operational theory of platform ecosystems in the B2B context and offers managerial insights for the sustainable development of cloud computing ecosystems.

Abstract:This paper analyzes the impact of convex incentives in delegated portfolio management on the prices and volatility of risky assets using a theoretical model within a continuous-time financial framework. A multiple-stock dynamic equilibrium pricing model is constructed, where institutional and retail investors have heterogeneous beliefs, and the institutional investors face convex incentives associated with a benchmark portfolio’s performance. On this basis, using the martingale method, the closed-form solutions for the risky assets’equilibrium prices and volatility are derived. Finally, numerical results show that the stock in the benchmark portfolio has a higher price and volatility than the stock that is not included. Convex incentives for institutional investors can always boost risky asset prices and the volatility of stocks in benchmark portfolio. When institutional investors are more pessimistic than retail investors, an increase in convex incentives will reduce the volatility of stocks not in the benchmark portfolio, and an increase in institutional market share will reduce the degree of bubble of stock not in benchmark portfolio.